Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing long term $73000.00 plus dime player run!
Basketball Totals (+10210) 1155-961 L2116 55%
All Sports Picks (+7597) 473-359 L832 57%
NBA Totals (+6748) 603-492 L1095 55%
MLB Money Lines (+4989) 1004-913 L1917 52%
NCAA-B Picks (+4647) 255-189 L444 57%
NCAA-F Picks (+3168) 1052-929 L1981 53%
NHL Money Lines (+2916) 101-65 L166 61%
Football Totals (+2705) 270-222 L492 55%
NFL Picks (+606) 205-180 L385 53%
Fighting Picks (+345) 4-1 L5 80%
WNBA Sides (+190) 151-137 L288 52%
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Phillies stater WALKER is 15-4 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WALKER is 13-4 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Im betting Walker thrives vs a SF side that has averaged just 3.9 rpg vs righty starters this season. I know Logan Webb is a solid starter but the Phillies re averaging 5.6 rpg vs rtightys this season, and Webb has not been all that strong in 4 away starts garnering a hefty 5.31 ERA. With the Phillies in top form having won four straight and 8 of their L/9 they get the nod here in Sunday night spot play on a value line. THOMSON is 42-11 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of PHILADELPHIA.
Play on Philly to win
Reds starter LODOLO is 14-5 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 15-9 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 3 seasons like Kremer.
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - excellent power team ( 1.5 or more HR's/game) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 7-36 L/27 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cincinnati to win
Both of todays starters Carrasco and Canning have not looked great this season, but the far superior bullpen is owned by the Guardians who have garnered a 2.20 ERA. MLB The edge on offense for the Guardians also gives us an advantage as they average of 5 rpg compared to the Angels 4.2 rpg output.
Home teams (CLEVELAND) - starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 42-23 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB Road teams (LA ANGELS) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings are 11-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cleveland to win
In game 5 of this series in Ohio the Magic and Cavs took part in a very close 104-103 tilt that saw the Cavs come out of it with a narrow victory. Last time out in Orlando we saw another close game with the Magic pulling ahead very late for a 103-96 victory. Im betting on more grinding action but as this game winds down Im also expecting alot more aggressive offensive output in this do or die situation. My totals number for this game is 200 so a full possession edge to the over is my call. Bickerstaff in 13 all playoff games as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 198 ppg scored.Bickerstaff in 49 home games revenging a road loss vs opponent as the coach of CLEVELAND have seen a combined average of 220.6 ppg. Bickerstaff in 80 home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.Mosley in 106 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ORLANDO has seen a combined average of 220.7 ppg scored.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored.
Play over
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).